Taiwan is considered by China to be part of its sovereign territory. Therefore, the landslide victory for Taiwan’s independence-oriented Democratic Progressive Party in last weekend’s elections may appear as a threat to the nations’ relationship. It’s expected that tensions will be renewed, though some believe that the vote may actually help to soften relations between mainland China and Taiwan.
The vote, in fact, was not intended to be a call for independence. In reality, only one fifth of the Taiwanese population are in favor of de facto independence from mainland China, according to recent polls. Although less and less Taiwanese desire reunification, there are varying opinions on how much integration should occur between the two nations’ economies. It seems Taiwan is not opposed to holding onto their ambiguous political status quo with China. Therefore, threats from Beijing or adventurism from Taiwan’s new ruling party would probably result in political turmoil.
Neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Taiwan’s President-elect Tsai Ing-wen are willing to risk political unrest, particularly at this time with China’s economy in transition and Taiwan’s shrinking economy. The global market vantage must be taken into consideration. Tsai Ing-wen, who promises in her campaign to revive Taiwan’s economy, is well aware that it’s going to require concrete relations with China. After all, the mainland accounts for 40 percent of Taiwan’s exports. Another consideration is that if Taiwan were able to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the island’s economy would get a desperately-needed boost. On the one hand, seeking to expand trade with other nations, Tsai Ing-wen also realizes that China is able to block Taiwan’s bid to join the partnership.
It’s unlikely that President Xi will seek to isolate Taiwan’s new leader, considering his goodwill summit meeting with the incumbent President Ma ying-jeou in November. A better approach would be for Xi to establish communications with Tsai, whose party is enjoying victory. A bridge of understanding could help to prevent possible rash moves that may erupt from her overzealous party members.
Although Tsai is refusing to accept the “1992 Consensus” in which the two nations agreed that there is only “one China”, she has thus far been ambiguous about her opinion on Taiwan’s ties with China. Finding a solution that will appease both sides will be a formidable task in Tsai’s interregnum period. As valid as her supporters’ concerns are about the “hollowing out” of the island’s economy as businesses shift to the mainland, the truth is that Taiwan would most likely gain by allowing an increase in Chinese investment and services. Other Asian countries, along with South Korea have benefited from China’s business. What remains is for the diplomatic groundwork to be laid which is no small challenge for the new president.
In the past, when angry students occupied Taiwan’s legislature, a trade pact with the mainland seemed to be an impossibility. The new administration may offer a more reasonable approach so that both sides can come to a mutually beneficial agreement.
